In a note published on Wednesday, CLSA forecast that Macau’s gross gaming revenue will rise by 5% in 2026.
The outlook is supported by expectations of a stronger renminbi against the U.S. dollar and a positive trend in China’s industrial profit indicators.
Analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan project next year’s GGR to reach MOP258.43 billion (US$32.3 billion), which equates to an average of MOP709 million in daily revenue. They also anticipate that Macau’s gaming industry will post low-teen GGR growth during the first half of the year.
Macau’s own budget outlook is more conservative. In data published on 21 November, the government projected GGR of MOP236 billion for next year, saying the estimate reflects a cautious stance amid global economic uncertainty.
CLSA had previously forecast 2025 GGR at MOP244.830 billion at the end of Q3. The firm has now made a small upward adjustment of 0.4%, incorporating the actual October results while leaving the remainder of its assumptions unchanged.
CLSA also highlighted that the upward momentum seen since June has carried into Q4 2025. Between January and October, GGR increased 8% year-on-year to MOP205.43 billion.
Macau originally set a 2025 GGR target of MOP240 billion in December 2024, but revised the figure to MOP228 billion after a weaker start to the year and ongoing economic pressures.
Morgan Stanley also expects a strong finish, projecting that GGR will rise 16% in Q4 2025, boosted by robust Golden Week results.
Around 1.14 million visitors arrived in Macau during the eight-day national holiday – slightly below the government’s 1.2 million forecast, but ahead of the 974,000 visitors recorded in 2019.
